Earlier this year, formula1fancast was discussing on Twitter the likelihood of a New York Grand Prix ever taking place. Most loved the idea, and then conversation eventually turned to what race it would replace, and the consensus was fairly damning.

Valencia out, said most fans. It seems the European Grand Prix hasn’t exactly endeared itself to spectators; the fact that it is a street circuit is where the comparisons with the glamorous Monaco race or the exciting Canadian Grand Prix end. Add in to that the fact that over-taking is generally hard to come by and you hardly have a recipe for succes

But the 2011 season has done what most thought impossible – it made races previously considered pedestrian exciting.

Just have a glance back to the build up to the Spanish Grand Prix and most of the talk was about if DRS can improver overtaking on a circuit where it was as rare as a Red Bull mistake, but once the aerodynamic device had its say talk of a boring race soon quietened down.

So where will the race be won and lost and who can thrive as formula 1 heads back to Europe again? Here are five factors that will influence the outcome of the race.

Valencia charactersisitcs throw up a might challenge

The Valencia street circuit has two main characteristics; plenty of grip come race day and, surprisingly for a street circuit, plenty of wide high-speed sections for drivers to really put their foot down in; although all is not quite as it seems.

Although blessed with straights that on face value would seem a racers dream,  their slightly curved nature make it difficult to pass on, and with heavy braking zones at the end of the harbour into turn 11 in particular mean moves are incredibly difficult to complete. This suits Red Bull to the ground and could mean they are incredibly difficult to catch all weekend as they make full use of the extra grip and speed they can take into corners.

The odd mix of curved straights, heavy braking zones and lack of lateral grip mean the cars will be put to the test – something Mark Webber found out last year as he crashed spectacularly out of the race having qualified in 2nd.

Of course a talk about straights and over-taking wouldn’t be complete without mentioning DRS (see below) and most spectators will have their fingers crossed for some action this weekend.

DRS will improve overtaking considerably

There have only been four completed overtaking manoeuvres in the three races since the Valencia street circuit was introduced in 2008. Four, And none of these came in the 2009 edition -Fans attending the race will pray to god that DRS and KERS can weave its magic once more to dramatically increase that figure.

Interestingly, Red Bull have insisted they will stick with their unreliable KERS package for Valencia having not been able to keep it operational for a race weekend this season. McLaren appear on top of things when it comes to both their DRS and KERS system, with Jenson Button demonstrating their refined versions to full effect in Canada two weeks ago, and may be able to push Red Bull closer than ever before.

Adrian Newey has even admitted the power boost system which has been altered to fit the Red Bull’s slim line design wasn’t their “forte” – something their rivals can really pounce upon.

Tyres are an unknown quantity

Yes, tyres will have an impact on the outcome of yet another race in the 2011 season, but perhaps for slightly different reasons in Valencia. Pirelli have opted for the medium and soft compounds for the race – with the medium making its race debut on Sunday.

What we do know about Valencia is that because it is used so rarely throughout the year it rubbers in very quickly, with grip increasing quickly as the weekend progresses.

The smooth surfaces mean tyre-wear shouldn’t be too extreme in that respect but the heavy braking zones and direction changes (Valencia has the highest amount of corners on the race calendar – 25) mean that the Pirelli rubber will still need to be looked after well.

“Previously the disparity in time between the two compounds used meant the softer tyre on offer was like gold-dust to teams for the first five races where the hard and soft were used, but with the medium and soft tyres the gap should be a lot closer, meaning strategy will take slightly more of a back seat.”

Teams will likely stick to a three or perhaps even two stop strategy as they feel out how the medium tyres will last.

Previously the disparity in time between the two compounds used meant the softer tyre on offer was like gold-dust to teams for the first five races where the hard and soft were used, but with the medium and soft tyres the gap should be a lot closer, meaning strategy will take slightly more of a back seat.

What is unknown though is how long they will last at race pace, how long they will take to switch on, and on a circuit which places a high demand on traction, how long it will take for them to overtake.

Ferrari looked very good in Montreal on the softer tyre and with the high levels of grip may be able to make hay while the going is good, but doubts remain over the Scuderia’s ability to perform on the harder of the two tyres.

Qualifying is back on the agenda – again

Qualifying has taken somewhat of a back seat this year. For all the added excitement come race-day in 2011, Saturday’s shoot-out has become, well, less than a shoot-out certainly.

Monaco was a notable exception and so will Valencia be purely because of the difficulty in over-taking. With tyre wear relatively low teams will think less about keeping an extra set of soft rubber back for race day and go for broke on Saturday – and if anyone is going to scupper Red Bull’s plans for dominance then they will look to get ahead of them in qualifying and reel them into a dogfight on race day rather than letting them streak away, something which has happened all too often.

Of course Sebastian Vettel’s one-lap pace will be difficult to top, but Ferrari and Fernando Alonso came within a whisker in Canada, and will look to go one better this weekend.

Red Bull are confident of a race win

Chasing pack look away now; Red Bull are pretty confident going into the European Grand Prix – and they have plenty of reasons to expect maximum points once more.

We saw in Spain the tremendous levels of downforce and therefore traction that Red Bull could generate in high speed corners in particular – Lewis Hamilton simply couldn’t stick close enough to the back of Sebastian Vettel as the entered the DRS activation zone from the long sweeping final corner to make a move, and in some respects Valencia may be a repeat of that.

The controversial blown diffuser that Red Bull pioneered looks set to be banned for the British Grand Prix may have a final flourish in Spain – and deliver more points to Red Bull once more.

For the latest news from the world of F1 ahead of the European Grand Prix stay tuned to formula1fancast. You can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook and check out our special features on the 8th race of the season, including the best quotes ahead of the race and our look back at classic races all coming later this week.

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